The Memphis Grizzlies have solely had one Defensive Participant of the Yr winner — Marc Gasol (2013) — however that may change this 12 months. Proper now, ahead Jaren Jackson Jr. is the favourite to win the 2023 DPOY Award regardless of solely enjoying 33 video games this 12 months. He’s a large favourite really. His odds at present sit at -110 on FanDuel whereas the next-best odds lie with Brooklyn middle Nic Claxton at +350. There’s little doubt that Jackson is having an exceptional defensive season. He deserves quite a lot of reward, however his stats aren’t as nice as they appear. Based on a viral Reddit thread — which on the time of penning this story had greater than 56,000 upvotes — Jackson’s numbers are being inflated when he performs at house.
A take a look at Jackson’s home/highway splits
JJJ’s house/highway splits are eye-popping to say the least. In 16 video games at house this 12 months, Jackson has 22 steals and 66 blocked photographs. By means of 17 video games on the highway, Jackson has solely 12 steals and 37 blocked photographs. That’s a 1.95-to-1 steal home-to-road ratio and a 1.9-to-1 block ratio when enjoying at FedExForum. It is sensible for gamers to play higher at house. Nonetheless, discrepancies of this magnitude are questionable at finest.
Earlier Defensive Participant of the Yr winners
Let’s check out the final 30 Defensive Participant of the Yr winners. That’s a large pool of information, no? It doesn’t matter what number of complete steals or blocks they’d. The one factor we’re taking a look at is the ratio at which these gamers accrued their blocks and steals at house versus on the highway. Right here’s each former DPOY to accrue even a 1.5-to-1 home-to-road ratio for both steals or assists:
2022 Marcus Good – 1.62 block ratio
2005 Ben Wallace – 1.83 block ratio
2003 Ben Wallace – 1.51 block ratio
1999 Alonzo Mourning – 2.09 steal ratio
That’s everybody. Solely one among these guys really had a steal ratio higher than Jackson’s, and that occurred 24 years in the past throughout a shortened season of solely 50 video games. With that few video games performed, it’s not onerous to imagine that ratio would’ve come again all the way down to Earth over the course of an entire season. In the meantime, no DPOY winner within the final 30 years has surpassed Jackson’s 1.9 block home-to-road ratio. Solely three males have even come shut, and one among them was a guard who recorded solely 18 blocks all the season. Basically, the statistical ratios we’re seeing from Jackson this season are unprecedented. Even when you don’t assume there’s foul play happening, these numbers warrant additional investigation.
G/O Media could get a fee
Grow those luscious locks back
This proprietary, prescription-grade topical Finasteride is proven to regrow hair in just a few months.
A closer look
Jackson is currently on pace to play 55 games this season, but let’s assume he’ll play 60 by the end of the year. After all, since returning to action on Nov. 15 Jackson has solely missed two video games. Sixty video games performed is a protected assumption. Given his present tempo, Jackson ought to end the season with roughly 62 steals and 187 blocks, or 1.03 steals per sport and three.12 blocks per sport. About 41 of these steals (1.37 per sport) and 124 of these blocks (4.13 per sport) ought to come at house, which means 21 of the steals (0.7 per sport) and 63 of the blocks (2.1 per sport) ought to come on the highway. At house, Jackson could be 18th in steals per sport and first in blocks by over 1.4 blocks per sport over second-place Claxton (2.7). On the highway, Jackson would fall to fourth in blocks and a hundred and twentieth in steals. These numbers don’t sound very changing into of a Defensive Participant of the Yr candidate, do they? So, if Memphis theoretically wished to create an NBA Defensive Participant of the Yr, it will make sense why they’d need his base defensive statistics to look higher than they really are.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the 29th-most valuable franchise within the NBA, and regardless of their stellar season — sure, by Friday, they’d misplaced 5 straight, however gained 11 straight prior — they’re exterior the highest 20 within the league in attendance. They need followers in seats, and the final two instances the Grizzlies completed higher than twentieth in attendance had been 2015 and 2013. Whereas these seasons noticed the Grizzlies win 55 and 56 video games respectively, the Grizzlies didn’t get the identical sort of attendance (in relation to the remainder of the NBA) after they gained 56 video games in 2022. The distinction? I’m reaching, however possibly Marc Gasol’s Defensive Participant of the Yr Award in 2013 had one thing to do with it. Might the Grizzlies be trying to replicate these circumstances from a decade in the past in an effort to improve attendance transferring ahead?
Evaluation
Now, the subsequent query in your thoughts might be “The place are all these steals and blocks coming from? The scorekeeper can’t manifest steals and blocks from skinny air. Individuals would discover.” That’s true, however apparently the Grizzlies’ scorekeeper is an authorized genius. Allegedly, these further steals and blocks are added when Jackson does something on protection that would even be imagined as a block or steal. Social media has already discovered quite a few examples from video games earlier within the season.
For the sake of transparency, there are others who imagine no foul play was concerned.
Within the tweet above, ESPN NBA analyst Kirk Goldsberry claims that, though 66 blocks is rather a lot, solely two to 6 of them are literally questionable, which means at worst, JJJ would nonetheless have 60 blocks at house on the 12 months (3.75 per sport).
Solely three of the ahead’s 66 house blocks had been mis-recorded by a scorekeeper, according to Kevin O’Connor, a senior basketball author at The Ringer.
There’s cause to assume the Grizzlies may very well be concerned with padding Jackson’s stats, however there’s additionally cause to assume the NBA would have caught this sooner had this been true. The league has already refuted the Reddit put up, with NBA spokesperson Tim Frank stating:
“To be able to make sure the integrity of our sport statistics, auditors, unbiased of the statisticians on-site, assessment all performs and stats choices in real-time throughout NBA video games.
“If adjustments are essential, they’re made at the moment or following a postgame assessment. The entire performs questioned within the put up on Memphis video games had been scored constantly throughout the guidelines set forth by the NBA statisticians handbook.”
Moreover, because the put up was initially made, Reddit has since labeled it “deceptive.” Does that imply it’s incorrect? Not essentially, but it surely does imply that the writer of the put up was talking as if his findings had been reality when that very nicely will not be the case. All in all, it appears nothing will come of those doubtlessly fraudulent Jackson steals and blocks, and if that’s the case, possibly throwing cash on Jackson’s block and steal numbers at house is the most effective wager you may make for the remainder of the season.
