Expectations are usually fairly excessive when somebody goes first total within the NHL Draft.
In principle, the prospect is usually as NHL-ready because it will get, and gradual stretches might be scrutinized. On the spot success is predicted extra from forwards, so individuals discover when somebody like Jack Hughes or Alexis Lafreniere doesn’t produce out of the gate.
However expectations are usually a lot leaner for defensemen, the place, typically, their affect isn’t measured by spectacular level totals.
So, when Owen Energy elected to return to varsity with the College of Michigan as an alternative of going professional instantly with the Buffalo Sabres, it wasn’t overly stunning. In 2021 Energy grew to become simply the fourth defenseman taken first total within the twenty first century, behind Erik Johnson (St. Louis, 2006), Aaron Ekblad (Florida, 2014) and Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo, 2018).
Ekblad and Dahlin each went straight to the NHL, whereas Johnson and Energy elected to spend an additional 12 months within the NCAA. Ekblad got here from the OHL, wasn’t eligible for the NCAA or AHL and had outgrown main junior. So the one different logical step was going as much as the NHL and he instantly earned key minutes for a foul Panthers workforce. He had some teething points however finally grew to become a drive and a worthy No. 1.
In Dahlin’s state of affairs, Buffalo wanted quick assist, and so they obtained it. Dahlin ended up having among the finest 18-year-old seasons by a defenseman, even besting Bobby Orr. Dahlin then fell out of the highlight when Cale Makar confirmed up, however Dahlin is on a 90-point tempo now. To say he’s been something aside from exceptional could be a mistake.
After which there’s Johnson, who has had the quietest profession of the bunch. He by no means actually grew to become the No. 1 star defenseman some projected him to be. Nonetheless, he has performed 905 video games over 16 seasons, received silver on the 2010 Olympics with the USA and helped Colorado win the Stanley Cup final summer time. He’s within the twilight of his profession and should have by no means been the tremendous high-impact man he was projected to be. However nonetheless, that additional time in school helped. Even for a prime prospect, it’s powerful transitioning from junior to the NHL, and, on the time, no person had gone straight from america Nationwide Workforce Growth Program to the NHL. So he obtained his reps in, performed effectively towards high quality competitors and made an instantaneous affect with the St. Louis Blues in 2007-08.
If we evaluate the 4 from a factors perspective, Dahlin had 44 factors, Johnson had 33, and Ekblad 39. Energy is on tempo for 32, so round what Johnson recorded. Of the 4, Dahlin was the one projected probably the most to be an offensive risk, and he has demonstrated that.
In Energy’s case, factors come secondary. He’s the largest of the 4 at 6-foot-6, however he skates like he’s 6-foot-1 as an alternative. He’s fast, makes use of his power to launch himself in brief battles, and is aware of the best way to put pucks on web, too. Few defensemen can play almost 24 minutes an evening and be as menacing and as skillful as Energy. Dahlin can be massive at 6-foot-3, and Ekblad appeared like a wolf when he first got here to the NHL, and nonetheless does.
However Energy is only a bit completely different.
Energy used that additional season to his benefit. He had almost some extent per recreation in 33 outings with Michigan and represented Canada on the Olympics in China. Energy closed the 12 months with an eight-game stint with the Sabres and confirmed some promise. He earned ample ice time and appeared like a person amongst children. It appeared too simple for him at occasions, however that’s due to how fluent and meticulous his recreation was.
Now a full-time presence with Buffalo, Energy is already averaging 23:39 of ice time, two extra minutes than another rookie. Of the 173 defensemen which have performed at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 action this year – roughly top-four defensemen usually – Energy has the Twenty fourth-best Corsi-for proportion of 54.34 and Thirty eighth-best goals-for of 58.06 %. Solely three defensemen have been on the ice for extra 5-on-5 targets, too.
Energy’s closest comparable of the three different first-overall picks must be Ekblad, not less than from a mode perspective. He can get 50 factors in a season, however it’s his two-way play, nice passing skill, wonderful hockey sense and imposing body that makes him so efficient. Ekblad could be seen way more positively if he hadn’t handled so many accidents in his profession. Energy’s been wholesome to this point, and we’re seeing a little bit of what made Ekblad enjoyable to look at early on.
So, how does Energy evaluate to different first-overall defensemen? Fairly properly. He’s having a optimistic affect at 5-on-5 and is getting extra comfy by the sport. He’s the yang to Dahlin’s yin in Buffalo’s lineup. The 2 would be the cornerstones of the blueline for the foreseeable future, and it’s a brilliant future. Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will make up the core.
Energy has already been given vital duty in Buffalo and has dealt with it effectively. If that is what we’re seeing in his early days, simply think about how good he’ll be as soon as he hits his peak.
