How a lot does ‘peaking late’ result in deep Stanley Cup playoff runs?

“They peaked on the proper time.” We’ve heard that expression used to explain late-blooming Stanley Cup playoff juggernauts for years. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues are the last word instance: final place in early January, second-half turnaround, greatest file within the league over their ultimate 10 video games, eventual champions.

Just like the beer-bellied, balding former beginning quarterback trudging into his high-school reunion, you don’t need to peak early, proper?

If you happen to’ve adopted my work lengthy sufficient, you’ll know I take pleasure in difficult hockey adages to see in the event that they ring true after we dig in to the info. Are the 2018-19 Blues the norm or the exception? How a lot does it matter to play your greatest hockey within the stretch run of a season?

On one hand, it’s laborious to check the info from each crew and each season with out understanding the subjective conditions. The 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks, as an example, struggled down the stretch as a result of their celebrity Patrick Kane was out with a damaged collarbone. He returned for Recreation 1 of the postseason, and Chicago was off and working to a 3rd Cup in a five-year stretch. Additionally, groups that clinch playoffs spots early usually have the luxurious of load-managing their high gamers, which might result in a dip in crew efficiency in meaningless video games.

I counter that notion with: The info nonetheless matter in that context, too. Whether or not a contending crew is legitimately combating a full-strength roster or just dulling its senses with video games that don’t affect the standings, how both state of affairs interprets to playoff efficiency is significant data.

So if we take a look at groups that made deep playoff runs prior to now 10 postseasons, what number of of them carried out properly within the ultimate 10 video games of the common season? I’ll outline “deep” as being one of many ultimate 4 groups standing in a given yr.

For the sake of this train, I’m discounting the 2019-20 season, as a result of groups went greater than 4 months between taking part in regular-season and playoff video games because of the pandemic, so the connection between late-season efficiency and playoff destiny clearly was very totally different. I changed 2019-20 with 2011-12 to present us a correct 10-season pattern.

Right here’s how the convention finalists of the previous 10 (non-bubble) seasons fared of their ultimate 10 regular-season video games. To keep away from falling into the “good groups win, Captain Apparent” lure, I’ll embrace the groups’ full-season season ranks within the standings too, as we have to see if total season efficiency correlates stronger to deep playoff runs than peaking late.

Season	Staff	Closing 10 video games	Rank	Full season
2011-12	Los Angeles*	.650	8^th	13^th
2011-12	New Jersey	.750	3^rd	9^th
2011-12	Phoenix	.800	2^nd	11^th
2011-12	NY Rangers	.600	11^th	3^rd
2012-13	Chicago*	.750	4^th	1^st
2012-13	Boston	.400	24^th	5^th
2012-13	Los Angeles	.600	10^th	7^th
2012-13	Pittsburgh	.800	2nd	2^nd
2013-14	Los Angeles*	.600	14^th	9^th
2013-14	NY Rangers	.700	6^th	12^th
2013-14	Chicago	.500	22^nd	7^th
2013-14	Montreal	.750	4^th	10^th
2014-15	Chicago*	.400	25^th	7^th
2014-15	Tampa Bay	.650	5^th	5^th
2014-15	NY Rangers	.700	2^nd	1^st
2014-15	Anaheim	.600	13^th	3^rd
2015-16	Pittsburgh*	.800	1st	4^th
2015-16	San Jose	.500	15^th	11^th
2015-16	Tampa Bay	.500	15^th	12^th
2015-16	St. Louis	.800	1st	3^rd
2016-17	Pittsburgh*	.500	16^th	2^nd
2016-17	Nashville	.550	13^th	16^th
2016-17	Ottawa	.500	16^th	12^th
2016-17	Anaheim	.900	1st	6^th
2017-18	Washington*	.800	3^rd	6^th
2017-18	Vegas	.600	11^th	5^th
2017-18	Tampa Bay	.550	15^th	3^rd
2017-18	Winnipeg	.900	1^st	2^nd
2018-19	St. Louis*	.850	1^st	11^th
2018-19	Boston	.600	13^th	3^rd
2018-19	San Jose	.350	28^th	6^th
2018-19	Carolina	.600	13^th	12^th
~~2019-20~~	Tampa Bay*	~~.350~~	~~27^th~~	~~4^th~~
~~2019-20~~	~~Dallas~~	~~.400~~	~~25^th~~	~~10^th~~
~~2019-20~~	~~NY Islanders~~	~~.400~~	~~26^th~~	~~15^th~~
~~2019-20~~	~~Vegas~~	~~.800~~	~~3^rd~~	~~7^th~~
2020-21	Tampa Bay*	.650	11^th	9^th
2020-21	Montreal	.500	17^th	18^th
2020-21	NY Islanders	.450	20^th	12^th
2020-21	Vegas	.700	9^th	1^st
2021-22	Colorado*	.450	21^st	2^nd
2021-22	Tampa Bay	.700	7^th	7^th
2021-22	Edmonton	.750	3^rd	11^th
2021-22	NY Rangers	.600	12^th	8^th

Noteworthy findings

– The typical factors share of the previous 40 convention finalists over their ultimate 10 regular-season video games was .634. Their common rank within the standings over their ultimate 10 video games was 11^th. Their common rank within the full-season standings, nonetheless, was even larger at seventh.

– 37.5% of the convention finalists had top-five information within the league over their ultimate 10 video games; 37.5% had top-five full-season information. 47.5% had top-10 information over their ultimate 10 video games; 70% had top-10 information within the full season.

– Solely 12.5% had bottom-10 information over their ultimate 10 video games, and simply 5 of the previous 40 convention finalists had been even under .500 over their ultimate 10 video games.

Conclusion

It doesn’t appear to be completely crucial so that you can obliterate your competitors just like the 2018-19 Blues and be the greatest crew within the NHL down the stretch, however the overwhelming majority of convention finalists had been no less than first rate groups down the stretch, with 87.5% taking part in no less than .500 hockey. That tells us you ideally don’t need to be unhealthy in your ultimate video games of the season. Nevertheless, the correlation is clearly stronger between being a superb crew all season and making a deep playoff run.

So whereas the late-season surge is a enjoyable narrative, it’s not as constantly as necessary as being a robust crew wire to wire. Peaking late? We’ll name it barely overrated but additionally not a nasty factor to do.

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